Exclusiva de TIME: calendario definitivo de las primarias republicanas de 2016

Después de que ayer se cerrase el plazo para que los comités republicanos estatales determinaran sus planes para el proceso de nominación presidencial, el Partido Republicano ha facilitado a TIME el calendario oficial de las primarias republicanas:

The Four Early States:These are the four “carve out” states that the Republican National Committee has permitted to vote in February. Delegates will be split among the candidates.

• Iowa Caucuses (30 delegates): February 1, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide and by congressional district, rounded to the nearest whole number.

• New Hampshire Primary (23 delegates, 20 bound): February 9, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide and by congressional district to candidates earning at least 10% of the vote.

• South Carolina Primary (50 delegates): February 20, 2016 — Delegates awarded as “winner take all” statewide and by congressional district.

• Nevada Caucuses (30 delegates): February 23, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide and by congressional district

SuperDuper Tuesday: March 1, 2016 (Delegates/Bound delegates) 565 bound delegates
Also known as the ‘SEC Primary,’ more delegates are bound on this day than any other in the primary race, all by some form of proportional allocation.** Many of the states are deeply conservative, and are being eyed by candidates appealing to such voters as an opportunity to build momentum. But there will be plenty of opportunities for more moderate candidates to come away with delegates, and maybe some victories too.

• Alabama Primary (50 total delegates/47 bound) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Alaska Caucuses (28/25) — Proportional with 13% threshold

• Arkansas Primary (40/37) ­— Proportional with 15% threshold

• Georgia Primary (76) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Massachusetts Primary (42/39) — Proportional with 5% threshold

• Minnesota Caucuses (38/35) — Proportional with 10% threshold

• North Dakota Caucuses (28/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound. Caucuses can be flexibly scheduled

• Oklahoma Primary (43/40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

• Tennessee Primary (58/55) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Texas Primary (155/152) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Vermont Primary (16/13) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Virginia Primary (49/46) — Proportional

• Wyoming Caucuses (29/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound

March 5, 2016 (145 bound delegates)

• Kansas Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 10% threshold

• Kentucky Caucuses (45/42) — Proportional with 5% threshold

• Louisiana Primary (46/43) — Proportional with 20% threshold statewide, no threshold for congressional district delegates

• Maine Caucuses (23/20) — Proportional with 10% threshold

March 6, 2016 (23 bound delegates)

• Puerto Rico Primary (23) — Proportional with 20% threshold

March 8, 2016 (140 bound delegates)

• Hawaii Caucuses (19/16) — Proportional

• Idaho Primary (32) — Proportional with 20% threshold

• Michigan Primary (59/56) — Proportional with 15% threshold

• Mississippi Primary (39/36) — Proportional with 15% threshold

March 12, 2016 (19 bound delegates)

• District of Columbia Convention (19) — Proportional with 15% threshold

• Guam Convention (9/0) — Delegates elected at convention and unbound

Super Tuesday: March 15, 2016 (361 bound delegates)
This is the first day that states may begin to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis and where favorite sons are looking to score big. It’s also the date at which a majority (56%) of delegates will have been already bound—an important milestone that was reached nearly a month later in 2012.

• Florida Primary (99) — Winner take all

• Illinois Primary (69) — Statewide delegates are winner take all, congressional district delegates elected directly on ballot and bound as they declare

• Missouri Primary (52/49) – Winner take all above 50%, otherwise winter take all by congressional district

• North Carolina Primary (72/69) – Proportional

• Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9) – Winner take all

• Ohio Primary (66) –Winner take all

March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

• American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention

• Arizona Primary (58) — Winner take all

• Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Spring BreakAfter a month of intense voting, the calendar slows with just 134 delegates bound over the course of a month. This could sap candidates’ momentum, either elongating a close race for the nomination or forcing underperforming and underfunded candidates from the race before the home stretch.April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

• Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

• Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare

April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

• New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)
More moderate Republicans have an opportunity to be heard at a critical juncture.

• Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all about 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district

• Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all

• Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all

• Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound

• Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold

May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

• Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

• Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all

• West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference

May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

• Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional

May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

• Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Last Call: June 7, 2016 (294 bound)
The final primary day, with a large crop of delegates up for grabs.

• California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

• Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all

• New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all

• New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold

• South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

THE CONVENTION: July 18, 2016 — Cleveland, OhioIf no candidate has the required number of delegates on the first ballot, balloting will continue until a nominee emerges with a majority of delegates. Most delegates are freed from their bindings after the first ballot or if released by the candidate. Others are held for longer.*Figure may increase slightly depending on outcome of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi gubernatorial races and legislative races in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia
**Some proportional allocations have been simplified here to indicate how the outcome may split.

Zeke J. Miller, de Time, llega a la conclusión de que "puede convertirse en el proceso más agotador e interminable en dos generaciones."

"La combinación de un calendario muy cargado al principio y la expansión de estados que dividen sus delegados entre los candidatos significa que probablemente la nominación no se conocerá hasta primavera como pronto, y tal vez meses después," escribe Miller. "Si tres o cuatro candidatos ganan una cantidad considerable de los primeros delegados en el primer mes de votaciones, la carrera podría llegar hasta el verano, si no hasta la convención."

Sí, hace cuatro años se decía lo mismo. Pero salvo el breve intervalo (agosto-octubre de 2011) en el que Rick Perry amenazó verdaderamente la posición dominante de Mitt Romney, se sabía que el favorito se iba a imponer tarde o temprano, y la única inquietud del establishment republicano era que Romney pudiera salir demasiado debilitado de las primarias; no tanto que no fuese a ganarlas. Este año hay mayor cantidad de candidatos fuertes que pueden ganar la nominación, un gran número de ellos de estados ricos en delegados (Bush y Rubio de Florida, Cruz de Texas, Kasich de Ohio, Fiorina de California, Trump de Nueva York) que entonces siempre ganó el mismo favorito, y está el imprevisible fenómeno Trump.