La situación de los estados más indecisos, según las encuestas, a una semana de las elecciones

Os dejo las encuestas de la última semana en los 20 estados potencialmente más indecisos (esta semana he sacado Missouri y he metido Carolina del Sur). La mayoría son anteriores a la decisión del FBI de reabrir la investigación sobre Clinton.

Alaska (3 votos electorales)

SurveyMonkey: Trump 47, Clinton 39, Johnson 11
Craciun Research: Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 7, Stein 3
UPI/CVoter: Trump 55, Clinton 41
Google Consumer Surveys: Trump 39, Clinton 38, Johnson 11

Arizona (11 votos electorales)

CBS/YouGov: Trump 44, Clinton 42, Johnson 4, Stein 1
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 43, Trump 43, Johnson 8
Data Orbital: Trump 42, Clinton 40, Johnson 5, Stein 2
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 43, Trump 42
UPI/CVoter: Trump 51, Clinton 43

Colorado (9 votos electorales)

CBS/YouGov: Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2
Remington Research: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 4
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 44, Trump 39, Johnson 11
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 46, Trump 43
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 46

Florida (29 votos electorales)

NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2
Siena/The New York Times: Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 4, Stein 2
SurveyUSA: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 2
Remington Research: Trump 48, Clinton 44, Johnson 2
Bloomberg: Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2
Emerson: Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 4
Dixie Strategies: Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 2, Stein 1
University of North Florida: Clinton 43, Trump 39, Johnson 3
Gravis: Clinton 48, Trump 47, Johnson 1
PPP: Clinton 48, Trump 44
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 49, Trump 45
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 48, Trump 47

Georgia (16 votos electorales)

SurveyUSA: Trump 49, Clinton 42, Johnson 3
Quinnipiac: Trump 44, Clinton 43, Johnson 8
SurveyMonkey: Trump 46, Clinton 44, Johnson 7
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 48, Clinton 43
UPI/CVoter: Trump 50, Clinton 45

Iowa (6 votos electorales)

SurveyMonkey: Trump 44, Clinton 40, Johnson 10
Quinnipiac: Clinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 44, Trump 42
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 48, Trump 48
Google Consumer Surveys: Trump 40, Clinton 31, Johnson 9

Maine (este estado reparte 2 votos electorales al ganador estatal y uno al ganador de cada distrito)

Estatal

Emerson: Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 1
Press Herald/UNH: Clinton 48, Trump 37, Johnson 5, Stein 3
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 7
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 46, Trump 39
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 54, Trump 43
Google Consumer Surveys: Clinton 46, Trump 27, Johnson 8

Distrito 1

Press Herald/UNH: Clinton 54, Trump 34, Johnson 4, Stein 1

Distrito 2

Press Herald/UNH: Clinton 43, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 4

Michigan (16 votos electorales)

SurveyMonkey: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 8
Detroit Free Press: Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 9, Stein 3
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Emerson: Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 3
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 41, Trump 37
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 51, Trump 46
Google Consumer Surveys: Clinton 39, Trump 32, Johnson 6

Minnesota (10 votos electorales)

SurveyUSA: Clinton 49, Trump 39, Johnson 5, Stein 2
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 47, Trump 38, Johnson 9
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 41, Trump 37
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 47
Google Consumer Surveys: Clinton 37, Trump 30, Johnson 8

Carolina del Norte (15 votos electorales)

CBS/YouGov: Clinton 48, Trump 45, Johnson 3
Remington Research: Trump 47, Clinton 45, Johnson 2
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8
Gravis: Clinton 49, Trump 47, Johnson 1
Emerson: Clinton 48, Trump 45, Johnson 4
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 48, Trump 44
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 48, Trump 48

Carolina del Sur (9 votos electorales)

SurveyMonkey: Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 6
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 49, Clinton 44
UPI/CVoter: Trump 54, Clinton 42
Google Consumer Surveys: Trump 41, Clinton 30, Johnson 7

New Hampshire (4 votos electorales)

WMUR/UNH: Clinton 46, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 1
Emerson: Clinton 46, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Monmouth: Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 7, Stein 1
InsideSources/NH Journal: Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2
Auto Alliance/ESA/Pulse Opinion Research: Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 1
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 10, Stein 4
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 12
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 44, Trump 40
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 47

New Mexico (5 votos electorales)

Santa Fe New Mexican/Zia Poll: Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 9, Stein 2
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 45, Trump 33, Johnson 18
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 49, Trump 39
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 44
Google Consumer Surveys: Clinton 48, Trump 24, Johnson 12

Nevada (6 votos electorales)

Remington Research: Trump 48, Clinton 44, Johnson 4
Auto Alliance/ESA/Pulse Opinion Research: Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 9
Emerson: Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 3
Gravis: Clinton 46, Trump 46, Johnson 3
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 43, Trump 43, Johnson 10
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 43, Trump 43, Johnson 11
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 40, Trump 40
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 48, Trump 46

Ohio (18 votos electorales)

Remington Research: Trump 48, Clinton 43, Johnson 3
Emerson: Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 6, Stein 1
SurveyMonkey: Trump 44, Clinton 41, Johnson 9
Auto Alliance/ESA/Pulse Opinion Research: Clinton 48, Trump 41, Johnson 4
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 45, Trump 45
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 49, Trump 47

Pennsylvania (20 votos electorales)

Remington Research: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3
Franklin & Marshall: Clinton 49, Trump 38, Johnson 4, Stein 2
Gravis: Clinton 47, Trump 44, Johnson 3
YouGov/CBS: Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 2
Auto Alliance/ESA/Pulse Opinion Research: Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 4
Emerson: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 6
Siena/The New York Times: Clinton 46, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 3
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 49, Trump 41, Johnson 6
Muhlenberg College: Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 48, Trump 46
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 46

Texas (38 votos electorales)

SurveyMonkey: Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 7
Crosswind Media & Public Relations: Trump 45, Clinton 38, Johnson 7
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 48, Clinton 34
UPI/CVoter: Trump 55, Clinton 41
Google Consumer Surveys: Trump 44, Clinton 30, Johnson 7

Utah (6 votos electorales)

Dan Jones & Associates: Trump 32, McMullin 30, Clinton 24, Johnson 4
SurveyMonkey: Trump 33, Clinton 30, McMullin 26, Johnson 7
Rasmussen: Trump 32, McMullin 29, Clinton 28, Johnson 4
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 44, Clinton 31
UPI/CVoter: Trump 66, Clinton 29

Virginia (13 votos electorales)

Emerson: Clinton 49, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 1
The Washington Post: Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Remingston Research: Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 3
Christopher Newport University: Clinton 46, Trump 39, Johnson 5, Stein 1
Quinnipiac: Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 4, Stein 2
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 48, Trump 39
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 46

Wisconsin (10 votos electorales)

Remington Research: Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 4
SurveyMonkey: Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 8
Emerson: Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 9, Stein 1
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 47, Trump 42
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 50, Trump 46

También hay que observar el Distrito 2 de Nebraska: Trump 44, Clinton 40, en North Star Opinion Research, la única encuesta que tenemos.

Reaccionando a las contradicciones de las encuestas estatales y nacionales en los últimos días, Nate Silver, el gurú con más adictos, escribió en Twitter: "Si los balanceos de las encuestas están exagerados por el prejuicio a responder, eso sugiere un riesgo significativo de error sistémico en las encuestas. O las encuestas están teniendo problemas a la hora de capturar una muestra al azar, o las preferencias de los votantes son bastante volátiles. En cualquier caso, mucha incertidumbre."